I was reading a column by Mike
Caro in a poker magazine a few
years ago, where he argued
that in live poker, things
will not break even over the
course of a year, or even a
lifetime. When you include
abilities and emotions and
financial strengths, there are
so many variables at the poker
table, that some situations
occur so rarely that they have
no chance to even out. Caro is
undoubtedly correct.
In video poker, however, there
are not so many variables. The
machine will always play
according to a consistent
random number generator. You
don’t have to be concerned
about whether the machine is
in a good mood or a bad mood
or has just won or lost. Of
course some people do take
these things into
consideration, but these
players are not winning
players. Winning players
ignore such factors.
Surely if you played quarter
Deuces Wild for 2,000 hours a
year, assume one million
hands, you’d get what you
deserved. Wouldn’t you? Maybe.
In Deuces Wild, royals happen
every 45,000 hands or so. This
is not a typo. The usually
given figure of 40,000 hands
is approximately accurate for
Jacks or Better, but not
Deuces Wild. The reason you
get fewer royals at Deuces is
because of hands such as Ah Kh
Qh 2c 5d. In Jacks or Better
you have a 1,080-to-1 shot at
the royal when you hold AKQ.
In Deuces, you have no chance
at the royal because you
should hold AKQ2.
In one million hands, you
should receive 22 royals. You
might, but you probably won’t.
You might receive 18 royals.
You might receive 27. It will
be around 22, but could be a
few off one way or the other.
Assuming you are a quarter
player, the difference between
18 royals and 27 royals in a
year is $9,000. That’s quite a
swing for quarter players.
And, depending on the slot
club, you’d earn $10,000 a
year with this much play if
you played the best game
perfectly.
What if you play sometimes for
quarters and sometimes for
dollars? If you get more than
your proper allotment of
royals for dollars and less
than your proper allotment for
quarters, everything would be
just fine. You will like your
year-end score. But the other
way around, and you can chalk
up a losing year.
Sometimes a casino offers a
too-good-to-last promotion. If
you do well while it is there,
wonderful. If you miss it, it
won’t be back. Shirley was
recently in a Golden Nugget
slot tournament where 150
people were vying for over
$200,000 in prizes. An
“average” result would have
been $1,300 or so. Somebody
ended up with $100,000.
Shirley ended up with $100.
Sigh! But nobody ended up with
an average result.
Video poker strategies are
based on the premise that
things will average out. But
we know they won’t. The
question then arises: if we
know things are not going to
average out, why on earth do
we base our strategies on an
assumption that we know will
be wrong? The reason is that
we need to make decisions
before we know what is going
to happen. Those may not turn
out best after we have seen
the results, but the time to
make decisions is when these
things are still up in the
air. We know things will not
average out over the year, or
a lifetime for that matter,
but we don’t know which things
will be high and which things
will be low.
Assuming things will average
out is probably the best
decision to make beforehand,
as long as we can afford the
swings. (This is a different
matter entirely and will be
discussed some other time). So
when you are dealt Ah As Ad 4c
4h in Double Bonus, throw the
fours away and go for the
aces. On average this is the
best play, although usually it
will cost you. But the
twice-in-47 times you get the
800-coin quad aces will more
than make up for the
shortfalls when you don’t.
This is a case where we know
it probably will not work this
time, but we are better off
going for it anyway. If you
can’t bear to break up the
full house, you are either
playing for stakes that are
too high for you, or shouldn’t
be gambling anyway.
— Bob Dancer is America’s
best-known video poker writer
and teacher. He has a variety
of “how to play better video
poker” products, including
Winner’s Guides, strategy
cards, videos, and the
award-winning computer
software, Bob Dancer Presents
WinPoker, his autobiography
Million Dollar Video Poker,
and his recent novel, Sex,
Lies, and Video Poker.
Dancer’s products may be
ordered at
www.bobdancer.com
